The Lehmann
Letter (SM)
When you look
at the chart you can see that consumer confidence popped back nicely from
recession’s deep trough. That sizzle is now fizzle. Economic expansion can’t
proceed with exuberance while consumer confidence is mired in the doldrums.
Consumer
confidence has stalled. The long climb out of recession’s trough has reached a
plateau, and that’s bad for consumer demand.
This morning
the Conference board reported “…the fourth consecutive moderate decline…” June’s
index-value was 62.0
The problem
is not so much decline. The index is essentially flat. But there’s no need to
quibble. The index has to rise through 100 to prove we have a robust recovery.
Just rising through 80 would be welcome.
Consumer
Confidence
(Click on
chart to enlarge)
(Recessions
shaded)
What’s wrong?
Household balance sheets (as this letter believes)? Unemployment, the euro, the
stock market, etc. (as others believe)? Why argue? We can probably all agree
that we have a problem.
(To be fully
informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)
© 2012
Michael B. Lehmann
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