The Lehmann
Letter (SM)
Uh Oh……..
This letter has
remarked on consumer confidence’s rise from recession’s trough. And it had. But
now matters are not so clear.
This morning
The Conference Board announced that consumer confidence, ”,,, declined slightly in April, (and) fell
further in May. The Index now stands at 64.9 (1985=100), down from 68.7 in
April.”
That wouldn’t
be too bad except that April’s reading was about the same as March’s. The chart
reveals that we haven’t been able to break through 70 when we should be heading
toward 100.
Consumer
Confidence
(Click on
chart to enlarge)
(Recessions
shaded)
Household
spending can’t recover strongly If consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
What’s wrong?
Let’s round up the usual suspects: Slow job growth & high unemployment,
stagnant wages, the jump in fuel prices.
This letter
would like to beat its habitual drum: Weak consumer balance sheets and
(therefore) moribund housing and (therefore) it's hard to be confident.
(To be fully
informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)
© 2012
Michael B. Lehmann
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