Minus 1.2 Million, And Counting

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The Lehmann Letter ©

This morning’s employment report was remarkable (http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm). It began:

“Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. October's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued to add jobs.”

We lost 240,000 jobs last month and September’s loss was revised upward to 284,000. Moreover, we’ve lost 1.2 million jobs this year, for an average monthly loss of 120,000. That’s awful.

If you update the chart below in your mind’s eye, you can see that the recent monthly losses of 284,000 and 240,000 are as bad as the 2001 dot-com recession. And all signs seem to say: The worst is yet to come.

Job Growth

(Click on chart to enlarge)

Recessions shaded

The chart was taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)

© 2008 Michael B. Lehmann