Autos: Revising Our Expectations Downward?

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

Is it time to revise our expectations downward?

There was an upbeat reaction at the beginning of the month to motor-vehicle manufacturers’ June sales.

And on July 5 the Commerce Department released its estimate of 14.0 million new-vehicle sales at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate:

http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp

The chart tells you that this is a big improvement over the recession lows of less than 10 million. There’s been a big pop up.

But now – it seems – we’ve stalled.

New-Vehicle Sales

(Click on chart to enlarge)

(Recessions shaded)

New-vehicle sales have averaged around 14million for the first-half of the year. The growth trend is over.

Is it time to revise our expectations downward?

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann