Monday, November 7, 2011

Not Enough

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

A certain amount of cheer greeted the Commerce Department's recent announcement that October new-vehicle sales had risen to 13.2 million:

If you inspect the data, however, you will notice the recent plateau at about 13 million. We are inching upward, not climbing upward. The chart reveals that auto sales must return to 16 or 17 million to reach full production. We are nowhere near that level.

Job Growth

(Click on chart to enlarge)

(Recessions shaded)

This report further reinforces the impression that we are not falling into another recession, but we are in a period of slack performance and inadequate progress.

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© 2011 Michael B. Lehmann

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