Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Housing Starts

The Lehmann Letter SM

A flurry of excitement accompanied the Census Bureau's announcement last week that June housing starts had risen to 629,000. The Bureau's bulletin reported that this was a 14.6% improvement over May’s figure.

By now, however, readers of this letter know that they must examine the chart to put recent data in perspective.

Housing Starts

(Click on chart to enlarge)

(Recessions shaded)

And the chart clearly shows that housing starts remain in the doldrums. June's reading remains too small to generate lasting excitement. If it's the beginning of a trend, housing starts will commence rising toward 1 million. We must wait and see.

(The chart was taken from
[Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)

© 2011 Michael B. Lehmann

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