Saturday, April 30, 2011

May Economic Indicators: Looking for Strength

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

On Thursday the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a meager 1.8% (adjusted for inflation) increase in first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That’s not good enough to take us where we want to go. Corporate earnings and the stock market have recovered nicely, but that’s not the entire economy. And earnings and stocks can’t keep going north unless the remainder of the economy does well, too.

Residential construction must emerge from the doldrums for that to occur. Unfortunately home prices continue to decline under the weight of excess housing inventories exacerbated by mass foreclosures. When existing-home sales begin showing strength, that should begin clearing the way for new-home sales and new construction.

Here are the May indicators we’ll follow.

ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE

May 2011

Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date

Quarterly Data

BLS….Productivity & Costs…………Thu, 5th

BEA…….GDP& Corp. Profits…..……Thu, 26th


Monthly Data

ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Mon, 2nd

BEA..New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Thu, 5th

BLS…………….Employment………… Fri, 6th

Fed…..Consumer credit..(Approximate).Fri, 6th

Census…………...Inventories…….. Thu, 12th
BLS…………….Producer prices……. Thu, 12th
BLS…………….Consumer prices.….. Fri, 13th
Fed………..Industrial production…….Tue, 17th
Fed……….Capacity utilization……….Tue, 17th
Census…….……..Housing starts…….Tue, 17th
NAR………Existing-home sales….Thu, 19th
Conf Bd…….Leading indicators….Thu, 19th
Census……..New-home sales…...Tue, 24th
Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 25th
Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 31st

*BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
*BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
*Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
*Conf Bd = Conference Board
*Fed = Federal Reserve System
*ISM = Institute for Supply Management
*NAR = National Association of Realtors

© 2011 Michael B. Lehmann

1 comment:

zhonglin said...

From Bureau of Economic Analysis, we can see that the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was primarily contributed from personal consumption expenditures , private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from government.
The increase in stock markets and corporate earnings can’t hold for ever. Real estate as the national economy's pillar industries, will certainly become a driving engine of rapid economic growth out of the bottom. From the report, real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 7.7 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 21.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 7.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 4.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.3 percent. Because the real estate under line interval is not the policy can prevent, is also not the short time can reverse, the long-term real estate is still unoptimistic.