March Economic Indicators: Tracking the Recovery

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

There’s no doubt the economy is recovering.

But some measures are recovering more rapidly than others.

Earnings are back to where they were before the recession and the stock market is chugging along. Consumer confidence and consumer credit are rising and firms are rebuilding inventories.

Examine the March indicators below, however, and you’ll see that most indicators have not returned to pre-recession levels. They are improving, but they’re not where they were. Employment is the most notorious. Yet housing, autos, industrial production, capacity utilization and capital expenditures also remain far from their earlier tops.

This letter will keep you posted.

ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE

March 2011

Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date

Quarterly Data

BEA…………………GDP…………..……Fri, 25th

BLS………….Productivity……………Thu, 3rd

Monthly Data

ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Tue, 1st

BLS…………….Employment………… Fri, 4th

BEA..New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Mon, 7th

Fed…...Consumer credit..(Approximate).Mon, 7th
Census…….……..Housing starts…….Wed, 16th
BLS…………….Producer prices……. Wed, 16th
Census……………...Inventories…….. Fri, 11th
BLS…………….Consumer prices.….. Thu, 17th
Fed………..Industrial production…….Thu, 17th
Fed……….Capacity utilization……….Thu, 17th
Conf Bd……….Leading indicators….Thu, 17th

NAR………Existing-home sales….Mon, 21st
Conf Bd….Consumer confidence….. Tue, 29th

Census………..New-home sales……...Wed, 23rd
Census……….Capital goods……….. Thu, 24th

* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* ISM = Institute for Supply Management
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

© 2011 Michael B. Lehmann