August Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

Everyone knows that housing led us into the recent recession. But what will lead us out? Here are the key August consumer-demand indicators that you can follow for up-to-the-minute information on demand's recovery.

Go to http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/ and click on Seminars, then click on Economic Indicators to navigate the sites that provide the data and click on Charts for a visual presentation that you can update.

• Home sales and construction remain in the doldrums. Consumer confidence and consumer credit are down, too. Households won't begin to spend heavily until they are willing to borrow heavily.
• Here are the key consumer-demand indicators we'll examine and the August days and dates on which we can expect them to appear. They will give us up-to-the-minute information on demand's recovery.
• Stay tuned to future editions of this letter as the story unfolds.

Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date

BEA….New-vehicle sales…...(Approximate).Wed, 4th

Fed………..Consumer credit…...(Approximate).Fri, 6th
Census…….………....Retail trade…….……….Fri, 13th
Census……….……..Housing starts………….Tue, 17th
NAR………………Existing-home sales…….Tue, 24th
Census…………..New-home sales………...Wed, 25th
Conf Bd………….Consumer confidence….. Tue, 31st

* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

• We will also check on manufacturing activity and inventories as well as overall employment and capital expenditures to understand how strongly supply is responding to demand. The following indicators are key.

Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date

Quarterly Data

BEA……………….………GDP…………...……Fri, 27th

Monthly Data

ISM……….Purchasing managers’ index…….Mon, 2nd

BLS…………………….Employment………… Fri, 6th
BLS………………….Consumer prices….….. Fri, 13th
Census…………………...Inventories……….. Fri, 13th
Fed……………..Industrial production……….Tue, 17th
Fed…………….Capacity utilization………….Tue, 17th
BLS………………….Producer prices……. Tue, 17th
Conf Bd……….Leading indicators……….Thu, 19th

Census………….Capital goods………….. Wed, 25th

* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* ISM = Institute for Supply Management
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

© 2010 Michael B. Lehmann