June Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

Here’s the publication schedule for some of June 2010’s most important economic indicators, together with some thoughts to accompany the data.

Go to http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/ and click on Seminars, then click on Economic Indicators to navigate the sites that provide the data and click on Charts for a visual presentation that you can update.

• Everyone knows that housing led us into the recent recession. But what will lead us out? Home sales and construction have only just begun to recover. Recent reports of large jumps in activity failed to disclose that we remain far below pre--recession levels. The same is true for new-vehicle sales.
• Neither has consumer confidence recovered pre-recession levels. Nor are households making robust use of consumer credit. Households won't begin to spend heavily until they are willing to borrow heavily.
• Here are the key consumer-demand indicators we'll examine and the June days and dates on which we can expect them to appear. They will give us up-to-the-minute information on demand's recovery.
• Stay tuned to future editions of this letter as the story unfolds.

Source (* below)…Series Description…Day & Date

BEA…New-vehicle sales…(Approximate).Fri, 4th

Fed…Consumer credit…(Approximate).Mon, 7th
Census…Retail trade……………………Fri, 11th
Census…Housing starts…………………Wed, 16th
NAR…Existing-home sales…………Tue, 22nd
Census…New-home sales………………Wed, 23rd
Conf Bd…Consumer confidence……… Tue, 29th

* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

• Now for a logical question: If demand is so weak, why are corporate-earnings so strong? Because productivity (output per hour of work) jumped as employers reduced their workforces by more than they curtailed output. The remaining workers had to produce more per hour, boosting profit margins. That's why the stock market did well for so long despite the weak economy.
• We will also check on manufacturing activity and inventories as well as overall employment and capital expenditures to understand how strongly supply is responding to demand. The following indicators are key.

Source (* below)……Series Description………Day & Date

Quarterly Data

BLS……………………….Productivity………………Thu, 3rd

BEA…………………………GDP………………………Fri, 25th

Monthly Data

ISM……Purchasing managers’ index………Tue, 1st

BLS……………Employment………………Fri, 4th
Census………Inventories…………………Fri, 11th
Fed…………………Industrial production………….Wed, 16th
Fed………………Capacity utilization…………….Wed, 16th
BLS………………Producer prices………………Wed, 16th
BLS……………Consumer prices……………Thu, 17th
Conf Bd………Leading indicators…………Thu, 17th

Census………Capital goods………………Thu, 24th

* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* ISM = Institute for Supply Management
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

• Finally, can we rely on international trade to help pull us out of the ditch? Probably not. It hasn't helped in the past, so we shouldn't count on it now.
• We'll fully explore the reasons as we examine the following.

Source (* below)……Series Description………Day & Date

Quarterly Data

Census………….US international transactions……Thu, 17th


Monthly Data

Census……………………Balance of trade……………Thu, 10th

* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census

Here is a complete calendar of the June indicators mentioned above.

June 2010

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE

Source (* below)……Series Description………Day & Date

Quarterly Data

BLS………………………Productivity……………………Thu, 3rd

Census……US international transactions……Thu, 17th

BEA…………………………GDP……………………Fri, 25th

Monthly Data

ISM……………Purchasing managers’ index……….Tue, 1st

BEA…New-vehicle sales………(Approximate).Fri, 4th

BLS……………….Employment………………… Fri, 4th
Fed………Consumer credit…(Approximate).Mon, 7th
Census………Balance of trade……………… Thu, 10th
Census………Retail trade…………………….Fri, 11th
Census……Inventories…………………….. Fri, 11th
Fed…………Industrial production………….Wed, 16th
Fed…………Capacity utilization…………….Wed, 16th
Census………Housing starts………………….Wed, 16th
BLS…Producer prices………………. Wed, 16th
BLS..Consumer prices……………... Thu, 17th
Conf Bd……Leading indicators…………Thu, 17th

NAR…………Existing-home sales……….Tue, 22nd
Census……..New-home sales……………….Wed, 23rd
Census…….Capital goods……………. Thu, 24th

Conf Bd…Consumer confidence…… Tue, 29th


* BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce
* BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
* Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census
* Conf Bd = Conference Board
* Fed = Federal Reserve System
* ISM = Institute for Supply Management
* NAR = National Association of Realtors

© 2010 Michael B. Lehmann