Today the Census Bureau released February capital-goods and new-home sales data:
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
New orders for nondefense capital goods appeared strong, rising from $55.000 billion in December to $57.402 billion in January and $60.376 billion in February. It appears that we are on a rebound when these numbers are plugged in to the chart below.
But they are deceptive because they include highly volatile new orders for aircraft. With these removed the data are $55.212 billion in December, $53.652 billion in January and $53.051 billion in February. What had been an upward trend is now flat or slightly downward.
Nondefense Capital Goods
(Click on chart to enlarge.)
Recessions shaded
New-home sales were also disappointing at 308,000 in February. The chart reveals that we are now in a double dip.
New Home Sales
(Click on chart to enlarge.)
Recessions shaded
Yesterday the National Association of Realtors reported 5.02 million existing-home sales in February:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/03/ehs_ease
The chart obviously shows a double dip here, too.
Existing Home Sales
(Click on chart to enlarge.)
Recessions shaded
We have enjoyed some positive signs lately, but by no means are we out of the woods.
(The charts were taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)
© 2010 Michael B. Lehmann
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