Loss of Confidence

The Lehmann Letter SM

Today the Conference Board reported that its Index of Consumer Confidence fell to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in January.

You can see from the chart that consumer confidence has been fluctuating around 50 for most months since crashing from its pre-recession level of about 100. Roughly speaking it’s half of what it was. Don’t expect robust consumer expenditures and a buoyant economy until confidence returns to pre-recession levels.

Consumer Confidence

Click on chart to enlarge)



Recessions shaded

Recovery will be slow and painful until consumer confidence breaks out of the trough and begins climbing back to 100.

(The charts was taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)

© 2010 Michael B. Lehmann