The Lehmann Letter ©
Today The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI): http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
The index gained in August, the fifth consecutive monthly improvement following a 20-month losing streak. Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist said, “These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain."
That says it all. The recession is over, but we can’t gauge the strength of the recovery. Keep in mind: Just because we’re no longer going south doesn’t mean we’re speeding north. This could take a while.
© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann