Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Consumer Credit

The Lehmann Letter ©

Today the Federal Reserve released May’s consumer-credit report:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

Consumer credit shrank by $39.6 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.


Consumer Credit

(Click on chart to enlarge)




(Recessions shaded)


When people feel good, they borrow and spend. When they feel lousy, they repay. Consumers are now repaying their debts.

The table below reports consumer credit at the end of the month. You can derive the monthly change by subtracting one month from the next and multiplying by 12.

Jan 2008 2,526.0
Feb 2008 2,536.9
Mar 2008 2,549.0
Apr 2008 2,555.8
May 2008 2,565.5
Jun 2008 2,574.1
Jul 2008 2,581.8
Aug 2008 2,575.8
Sep 2008 2,582.8
Oct 2008 2,578.1
Nov 2008 2,568.8
Dec 2008 2,562.0
Jan 2009 2,566.2
Feb 2009 2,555.0
Mar 2009 2,539.4
Apr 2009 2,522.9
May 2009 2,519.6

Consumer credit outstanding is now less than it was 18 months ago.

The economy won’t rebound until this number grows again.

(The chart was taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)

© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann

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