Thursday, June 11, 2009

More Good News

The Lehmann Letter ©

Today the Census Bureau released April sales and inventory data as well as the inventory/sales ratio:

The ratio continues to fall, and that’s good news.

(Click on image to enlarge.)

The ratio is heading south because goods on the shelf are declining faster than total sales. Once goods on the shelf reach an irreducible minimum, management will have to revive production in order to replenish them.

That may take a while. You can see how swiftly the ratio rose in 2008. It will take some time to drop back down.

When it does and production revives, that will be the true turning point.

© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann

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