Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private payroll employment fell by 539,000 in April. That’s better than the 600,000+ losses of the past several months but, as you can see from the following chart, job losses remain severe when compared with earlier recessions.
Job Growth
(Click on chart to enlarge)
(Recessions shaded)
Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that consumer credit fell at a $133.2 billion annual rate in March. That maintains the negative streak evident in the chart below. Households are repaying their debts, which provides evidence of the drop in spending.
Consumer Credit
(Click on chart to enlarge)
(Recessions shaded)
On Monday the Commerce Department releaseded the April new-vehicle sales rate of 9.3 million. Sales have been below 10 million since the turn of the New Year. The next chart indicates the severe nature of this slump.
New-Vehicle Sales
(Click on chart to enlarge)
(Recessions shaded)
Last Friday the Institute for Supply Management reporteded that its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 40.1 in April. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction, and the index has been below 50 for a year. In December the index fell to a low of 32.9 and has been rising ever since, indicating that manufacturing is contacting at a slower rate. The chart reveals the severity of the current situation.
Purchasing Managers’ Index
(Click on chart to enlarge)
(Recessions shaded)
Bottom Line: Were in the trough of a bad recession. It may not be getting worse, but it’s not getting better in a hurry. Demand and production remain weak and layoffs continue.
(The charts were taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)
© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann
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