Rebound Vs. Trough
Today the National Association of Realtors announced that March existing-home sales fell slightly to 4.57 million: http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2009042301 .
The big picture helps interpret this number, and the chart below serves as illustration.
Existing-Home Sales
(Click on chart to enlarge)
(Recessions shaded)
It appears that home sales have plateaued at slightly under 5 million, where they’ve fluctuated over the past several months. Homes sales may not fall further, but there is no evidence (yet) of rebound.
The same is true for other recently-released economic data. Descent may have ceased, but that is not to say that ascent has begun.
At this stage the recovery looks more like an “L” than a “V.”
Stay tuned.
(The chart was taken from http://www.beyourowneconomist.com. [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)
© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann
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