Thursday, April 23, 2009

Rebound Vs. Trough

The Lehmann Letter ©

Rebound Vs. Trough

Today the National Association of Realtors announced that March existing-home sales fell slightly to 4.57 million: .

The big picture helps interpret this number, and the chart below serves as illustration.

Existing-Home Sales

(Click on chart to enlarge)

(Recessions shaded)

It appears that home sales have plateaued at slightly under 5 million, where they’ve fluctuated over the past several months. Homes sales may not fall further, but there is no evidence (yet) of rebound.

The same is true for other recently-released economic data. Descent may have ceased, but that is not to say that ascent has begun.

At this stage the recovery looks more like an “L” than a “V.”

Stay tuned.

(The chart was taken from [Click on Seminars and then Charts.] Go there for additional charts on the economy and a list of economic indicators.)

© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann

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