GDP

The Lehmann Letter ©

Today the Bureau of Economic analysis released
(http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=6&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=2006&LastYear=2008)
these GDP data (in $billions):

.........2008-I.... 2008-II...2008-III......2008-IV
GDP..11,646.....11,727.4.....11,712.4.....11,599.4
C........8,316.1.....8,341.3......8,260.6......8,186.9
I.......1,754.7......1,702.0.....1,703.7.......1,648.5
(X-M)-462.0.......-381.3.......-353.1........-356.4
G.......2,039.1......2,058.9.....2,088,1......2,097.7
C = Consumption
I = Investment
(X-M) = Net Exports
G= Government

Notice that, for the first time, every component except government expenditures fell. (Since net exports were negative because imports exceeded exports in all quarters, a larger number indicates a drop.) Consumption and investment declined by large amounts. The domestic private economy is contracting rapidly.

There is every indication that will continue into 2009.

© 2009 Michael B. Lehmann