Monday, June 11, 2012

Manufacturing Omen? Profits and Profitability Flat

The Lehmann Letter (SM)
  
This letter believes that profits and profit margins (profitability) remain the stock market's greatest challenge for further appreciation. The June 7 edition reported strong growth for profits and a high plateau for profit margins at all corporations in the first quarter. The challenge: Will profits continue growing and margins remain high?

This morning the Census Bureau reported FLAT first-quarter manufacturers' profits and profit margins:


Is this an omen for all corporations and the stock market? Have profits and profitability reached a ceiling? Take a look at the charts to put the following data in historical perspective.

Manufacturers’ Profits

(Click on chart to enlarge)



(Recessions shaded)

Manufacturers’ Profit Margins

(Click on chart to enlarge)




(Recessions shaded)

Profits hovered at about $150 billion throughout 2011 and this morning's report places them at $148.0 billion in this year's first quarter. Profit margins were 8.7 cents per dollar of sales in the first quarter, also about where they were in 2011. Sales continue to grow, but profits and profitability do not.

That's worth repeating: Sales revenue grew but total profits and profit margins did not. Let's hope manufacturers break out of this range and that manufacturers' latest report is not an omen for all business.

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann


Friday, June 8, 2012

Consumer Credit Continues Climb

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

Consumer credit continues to climb out of its recession trough::


The Fed reported consumer credit grew by $78.2 billion in April. (This includes credit cards, auto loans, home-appliance and home-furnishing financing, student loans, etc., but excludes real-estate financing.) That’s consistent with the progress evident in the chart.

Consumer Credit

(Click on chart to enlarge)






(Recessions shaded)

Households had retreated into a protective crouch: Conserving liquid assets, shedding debt and reducing large, postponable purchases. Now consumers are taking the first tentative steps out of that crouch. They are doing some borrowing and buying.

If only that extended to housing………

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann





Thursday, June 7, 2012

Productivity and Profitability

The Lehmann Letter (SM)
  
Corporate profits have had an extraordinary run in the past decade. The dot-com bust of 2001, which many thought would be the demise of corporate earnings, quickly became the launching pad for a record climb.

Growth in profit margins (Profits = Profit margins X Sales volume) enabled this increase in total profits. The chart reveals that profit margins began to rise above their historic range during the dot-com boom of the 1990s, and then reached all-time highs from 2002 to 2012.

Corporations had two factors on their side: Rising productivity (efficiency) and meager wage gains. The 2008 - 2009 recession aided profit margins when workforces shrank more than output and wages consequently lagged. You can see from the chart that profit margins are at their peak.

Profit Margins

(Click on chart to enlarge)



(Recessions shaded)

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that productivity (efficiency) fell in the first quarter but employees' real compensation fell even more rapidly. As a result the cost of producing a unit of output grew less rapidly than the price businesses received for that output. The result: Profit margins remain at historic highs.



In Sum: Falling compensation more than offset falling productivity (efficiency), maintaining profit margins at record levels. Business continues to enjoy an extraordinary era.
 
(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Autos Plateau

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

New-vehicle sales are crucial to the economy's recovery, and they appear to have stalled.

The chart shows 16-17 million sales annually from 2000 to 2007, and recovery from the recent recession initially looked strong. Sales climbed from under 10 million in the recession’s trough to 15 million earlier this year. But now they are hovering around 14 million and were only 13.7 million in May. That's not a good omen.

New-Vehicle Sales

(Click on chart to enlarge)




(Recessions shaded)

Household expenditures on homes and autos must return to a semblance of their pre--recession levels if the economy is to enjoy a full recovery. Problem is: Consumers’ weak balance sheets stand in the way. During the roaring 2000s households had no qualms about piling on debt and could easily refinance their homes to buy a new car. Those days are gone. Household assets are no longer appreciating and debt is a burden and new borrowing is difficult.

As a consequence new-home sales are stuck in an L shape, flat-lining at their recession levels. New-vehicle sales escaped that fate by rebounding swiftly. But now they are flat-lining below full-recovery levels.

Let's stay tuned to this important statistic and hope it breaks through the 15-million ceiling soon.

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Germany: A Builder, Not a Wrecker


The Lehmann Letter (SM)
  
It’s easy to characterize Germany as content, self-satisfied and disdainful of its southern, debt-plagued neighbors.

But Germany has been a builder, not a wrecker since WWII. This letter believes Germany will continue to fulfill that activist role.

Germany is not fiddling while Rome and Madrid burn. And it’s not just that Chancellor Angela Merkel must please her constituency. Germany has a record of putting its money where its mouth is. Germany not only apologized to Holocaust victims; it offered restitution. When West and East Germany unified 20 years ago, the West created a fund to rebuild the East. Germany then paid $1 trillion to do so. That’s right: ONE TRILLION DOLLARS. That’s a lot for a nation whose economy is much smaller than ours.

Germany has already paid substantially to bail out southern Europe. But it knows the price of putting its money where its mouth is. So Germany wants to be sure that any further assistance will include measures that further unite the fiscal and monetary policies of Europe. That seems reasonable.

In that light consider these articles in this morning’s New York Times:

Germany Is Open to Pooling Debt, With Conditions

E.C.B. Under Pressure to Ride to the Euro's Rescue

Here’s the last paragraph of the first article:

“’Merkel is slowly adapting to different times because she is afraid of not jumping on the train in time,’” said Stefan Kornelius, foreign editor of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “’She doesn’t want to be the gravedigger for the euro.’”

That’s not a description of an obstructionist.

Now read these paragraphs from the same article:

“Pressed by a banking crisis and turmoil in the markets, Germany has indicated that it is prepared to accept a grand bargain that would provide greater support for its most indebted euro zone partners in exchange for more centralized control over government spending in Europe.

“’The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that finding the way to “more Europe, not less’” was the next task for Europe’s leaders. “’The world wants to know how we expect the political union to complement the currency union,’” Ms. Merkel said at a news conference here Monday with José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission. “’We have to find an answer in the foreseeable future….’”

“The worsening crisis has led to a sweeping effort to chart a new path forward for the (European) union, one that encompasses fiscal integration, Europe-wide banking supervision, and tighter coordination of economic policies.”

That’s a builder, not a wrecker.

The same is true for Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank. Take a look at these lines from the second article:

“…Last week, in a rare public rebuke to the region’s elected officials, Mr. Draghi outlined the steps he said were necessary to strengthen the euro currency union, including requiring member nations to take shared responsibility for bank bailouts. If he walks this tough talk, the central bank might not take action until political leaders have made tangible progress in that direction.
“To help leaders head down that path, the European Commission on Wednesday is expected to propose steps toward a so-called banking union — measures that would include requirements that nations set up funds to deal with failing banks, with the money possibly shared by countries, and give the national authorities greater scope to intervene in troubled banks.”

Europe has forged a stronger union in response to past crises, and can do so again.

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann

Monday, June 4, 2012

The Nub of the European Crisis


The Lehmann Letter (SM)

Here’s the nub of the European crisis: Can northern Europe and southern Europe agree on the conditions under which the north bails out the south?

Below the link is an upbeat passage that appears near the end of an article in today’s New York Times entitled:

Euro Zone Is Lurching to a Crossroad

“Some experts said … that it would be a mistake to underestimate European resolve about ramming through unifying measures like euro bonds and tighter common control of national budgets — especially when the prospect for not doing so looks so dire.”

That looks encouraging, but it followed these paragraphhs:

“As Spain’s economic crisis deepens and uncertainty swirls over Greece’s future in the euro zone, the guardians of the increasingly fragile European monetary union are near a moment of truth: Can they muster the will and resources to keep the euro zone from breaking apart?....

“Over the weekend, leaders of two of the euro’s most vulnerable countries rallied to the cry of more unification. Mario Monti of Italy called for using euro bonds to create a quicker path to common debt for Europe. And Mariano Rajoy of Spain floated the idea of a common fiscal authority in Europe to synchronize budgets and manage debts…..

“Integration, in the form of banking and fiscal unions, would take time, of course, although policy makers are pushing harder than ever on these fronts. As for short-term measures that countries like Spain are pushing for, namely to get Europe to provide money for its banks or buy its bonds in bulk, these steps would require sacrifices that Spain seems in no mood to make. ….
“It is the nub of the euro zone’s existential quandary: how to get taxpayers in northern creditor countries like Germany to provide funds to countries like Greece and Spain that are unwilling to accept the loss of sovereign control over their banks and budgets that would be the consequence of such assistance. …
“Germany, however, has no desire to swallow the bill for Spain’s bad banks, so it is insisting that funds be disbursed to the Spanish government and that strings be attached. It wants more draconian spending cuts and perhaps even losses for the mostly Spanish investors who hold the stocks and bonds of these failed banks.….”
But as Berlin and Brussels butt heads with Madrid over who pays what, when and how, money continues to flee Spain at an alarming rate….”

This letter continues to believe that Europe can reach agreement to end the crisis, but negotiating that agreement is a struggle.

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann

Friday, June 1, 2012

Weak Employment Report

The Lehmann Letter (SM)
  
This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report began:

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”


Those numbers are a disappointment.

Job Growth

(Click on chart to enlarge)




(Recessions shaded)

The chart illustrates what we need: A quarter-million new jobs per month to restore full employment. We’re not getting that.

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2012 Michael B. Lehmann